Huckabee's Statistics

Huckabee gave another statistic at the Republican debate this week; he was appalled that the average American spends 38 hours a year in traffic! Wow, how appalling- that's almost 9 minutes every single day! 4.5 minutes per trip to or from work! No wonder he is appalled- how awful. We better spend a lot of time debating this, it's obviously a very important issue. (Yes, sarcasm). That man should stop using statistics.

Sick

This is getting ridiculous. I woke up Thursday morning with a sore throat and by mid-afternoon felt terrible. I have been between the bed and couch now for 3 1/2 days. No kidding. I have done NOTHING. I was in and out of sleep for most of Thursday night and Friday. Then on Saturday I managed to stare at the tv but that was the extent of my activity. Today I tried to do some reading for school but didn't get very far. So yeah, 3 1/2 days of my life just disappeared and I don't know where they went. My body is now sore from being inactive for so long and I'm still not entirely better. I, of course, managed to pass it on to Michael who is now fighting his battle with with the sick bugs.

A lot of people seem to be getting these extended sicknesses this year. I have to wonder if this is related to the changes in our environment and the increased pollutants in the air. I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've been sick for this long. A few years ago I would have been more concerned about being sick this long but now it's just the "norm"- a lot of people I know have caught something similar this year. Scary to think what the future may hold.

Maumau Update

We went back to the vet today for more xrays. They still can't see anything broken but there does seem to be some inflammation or fluid around her "elbow". So she's going to be on steroids and an antibiotic for the next 5 days or so. If that doesn't work, we have to take her to a specialist and consider surgery. My poor kitty.

I came home tonight to her sprawled on the living room chair, white fluff everywhere. Isn't she cute?

Purpose of an Educational System

I got to campus today and found that there was no place to park because there was a stupid basketball game. I had to drive around with all the other crazy students antsy to get to class, searching desperately for a spot. Reminds me of the good 'ol days at Arizona State University. I lived in the dorms freshman year and the dorm parking lot was also the stadium parking. So every time there was a football game, if I left to go somewhere, I could not return. As a side note, I never had this issue at Purdue. Draw whatever conclusions you like from this.

Which brings me to my point: Isn't the purpose of an educational institution to, uhm, educate? And if the students can't get to their classes due to sporting events, doesn't that contradict the point of the institution? I get that sports bring in money, blah, blah, blah. But I should not be prevented from going to class or forced to be late for class because the school blocked off student parking for a game.

Beginning the Spring Semester

This week was the first week of the spring semester. I can't say I was really looking forward to it- it takes up so much time and I have so many other things I want to be doing. But I know this is good for my future and most of the topics are interesting, so it's worth it.

The first class I'm taking is on Decision Theory and is more of a psychology class than operations research, although they are related in this class. It will focus on how people make decisions, which I think is good knowledge as a manager. I'm not sure what to think of an OR class not based on math, but I'm excited about it. The subject matter is interesting and hopefully it will be a little less intense than some of the other classes I've taken.

The second class I'm taking is called Integer Programming and is primarily math, setting up mathematical models, using various software programs to code/create models, and analyzing the outcomes of said models. This is NOT my area of interest. The geek in me does think some of this is interesting but it sounds like it's going to be a LOT of work. The professor is known for giving insanely long homework assignments.

Both of my classes are tiny this semester- between 6-8 people. It should be interesting, as both professors are open to lots of discussion and letting the students help guide how long we spend on various topics based on our interests. I'm pretty excited about that as none of my classes have been this way so far.

Maumau Kitty

My poor kitty. She started limping a couple weeks ago and I didn't worry too much. She tends to do stupid things, such as jumping between objects that are 10 feet apart where the object she's jumping to is either higher or unstable and there is clearly no way any rational being would think they could land on the object. Yes, that's my kitty. She has also started taking an interest in playing with Izzie- which is SO cute. So when she started limping I just figured she'd either gotten herself into one of her normal predicaments or played a little too rough with Izzie.

When she was younger, I would take her to the vet immediately for things like this and they would just tell me that she should rest. So this time I waited. And the limp is still there and it's really noticeable. So we went to the vet and they did xrays. Nothing is broken thankfully but I kinda wish it was so we would know what's wrong. They gave us some pain meds which have made her sleepy and less active. No help. She's still limping. Today the meds wore off and she's been meowing and cranky. I'm worried cause she's getting older- she'll be 10 this spring. So it's back to the vet for round two. :(

PSDM

I've spent the last few months putting together a website that documents all of the processes, procedures, and templates for our software development methodology. The system will be used by all of the projects at my company. The system is called PSDM: Platinum Solutions Delivery Methodology. We're releasing it in three phases and the first was released today. The first section includes all of the Project Management processes and templates. To give you an idea of the size of the system, there are about 30 web pages on the site, documenting all the processes via flowcharts and detailed step descriptions. In addition, I created about 30 templates, including management plans and tools. So it was a huge endeavor.

I presented the new system to the company today at our All Hands meeting. I had a bunch of people compliment me on the system and my presentation, which meant a lot because I don't really consider myself a very talented presenter. I get nervous speaking to large groups but I'm getting more comfortable. I basically force myself into positions where I will have to speak to large groups so that eventually this anxiety will completely go away.

Anyway, it was a really good day and I feel like I've made a big contribution to the organization as well as a personal accomplishment.

Workin' Like a Dog

So it's Thursday night and I've worked about 60 hours this week. Yeah, and I've still got work to do this weekend. My guess is this will end up being about an 80 hour week. Nice huh? I think I'm starting to lose it a little. I really haven't done anything other than work in the last 5 days. It makes me irritable. On top of that, some other things have happened this week that I'm just frustrated with and that makes it really hard to be so dedicated. Hopefully next week will be better.

Juno

We went to see the movie "Juno" today. I loved it. The acting was really good and the story was touching. I think anyone that can empathize with the idea of what it would be like to get pregnant in high school will feel some emotion watching this movie. Beyond that, the movie was funny throughout and I had a hard time to stop laughing. This movie will definitely be added to my DVD collection.

I debated even seeing the movie because it got good ratings. Isn't that crazy? I feel like the movie critics have gone down a path in the last few years of celebrating movies because of the subject matter over the acting or writing. I mean seriously- Brokeback Mountain??? That ranks up there as one of the worst movies I've seen. And it's not about the subject matter; I thought the acting was atrocious and the screenplay was awful. But the critics raved. So now I look for some solid "C" rated movies and stay away from the "A" rated ones. But I guess they got one right: Juno was awesome.

World Without End

I guess the one upside of my being sick is that I got to finish the book I've been reading, "World Without End". It's by Ken Follett and is the sequel to "Pillars of the Earth" which is one of my favorite books. It's been ten years between the two books so it's pretty exciting to people like me who had no idea this was coming. I highly recommend it. It's historical fiction based in the 1300s and deals heavily with the interactions of the church and a small town in England. It focuses on the personal interactions of the people in the town but you get an idea of the time period at the same time so it isn't boring, as historical fiction can often be. If you're looking for a new author, he's one of my favorites.

Something to know about Ken Follett's books: they're located in two sections of the bookstore. He writes both mystery and historical fiction so he's found in the Mystery and Fiction & Literature sections. I'm not a mystery gal so I only read the historical fiction. I've read all of his books in this section and they're all great.

In case you're curious, Books by Follett:
Pillars of the Earth
World Without End
A Place Called Freedom
A Dangerous Fortune

Stomach Bug (again)

Around midnight on Friday my stomach started hurting. I went to bed but then spent the entire night/morning getting sick. I just had a stomach bug in September when I was at Purdue. What's the likelihood of getting a stomach bug twice in 4 months? This sucks! My entire weekend has been wasted lazing around waiting to feel better.

Lost Dog Volunteering

The Lost Dog Rescue has several adoption events every weekend at various Petsmarts in the area. We volunteered tonight at one of them and each spent a couple hours with a dog, walking around and promoting them to the people who came to adopt. I had a feisty 1 year old named Jackie. She was very sweet and very smart but VERY active. My hands are raw from the leash and my back actually hurts from keeping her under control for hours. She was really interested in the small animals in glass cages (stop reading if you are a bird/fish person). She sat staring at the fish for awhile, then snapped at the glass cause apparently she thought she would catch one. It was really cute. We may have also opened a rope in the toy aisle (by "we" I mean Jackie) and chewed on it for awhile.......... While I fought with my pup, Michael had an 8 year old basset/cocker spaniel mix that just wanted to chill. Figures.

The Reality of Statistics

As an industrial engineer, and somewhat of a statistician, I have to comment on these statistics I continue to hear during the presidential debates. I am not going to speak politics here, other than to name a statistic mentioned. On Meet the Press, Huckabee stated that there has been a lower percentage of deaths of our troops since the surge and this indicates a move towards victory. I don't recall the exact numbers, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter. Let's play with numbers for a moment; I'm going to use small numbers for the sake of simplicity.

If there are 10 troops and one is killed, that means 10% of troops are killed.
If there are now 100 troops (surge) and 5 are killed, that means 5% of troops are killed.

In this example, a surge causes a lower percentage of troops to be killed and yet more of our troops are dying. I take issue with this being considered a metric for victory. It does not seem to be an indicator of much of anything and may in fact skew the data to look like a victory when in fact it is an increased failure.

In addition, delving a little deeper into this metric reveals that the metric itself cannot measure victory. The implication of Huckabee's statement is that a lower percentage of troops killed equals victory. Under this idea, by removing all troops and thereby gaining a 0% kill rate, complete victory would be achieved. By this metric, a surge should never have been considered. So again, the metric appears to measure little, but instead just be another number to be thrown at the public so they will believe something positive is being done.

What I would give to work in the government and establish metrics! I have found in my short career in the metrics field that the majority of people have no clue what they're doing when it comes to metrics. The thing about statistics is that you can interpret them to support almost any argument (with the same data). To have good metrics that measure real issues and make real improvements, you need an expert in the field; you also need someone with integrity that will report the data and metrics for what they really are.

My point? Beware this election season (and everywhere else in your life) as people throw statistics around like they are the selling points to their argument. Things are not always as they appear.